4. The demand situation of potential shs target groups
The energy needs of rural households which could be met by SHS
can be characterized as follows:
- Nearly all households require lighting for about 4
hours each day. At present, the bulk of this demand is being met with candles
and kerosene or oil lamps.
- Most households own a radio which provides entertainment and
information (often with a built-in cassette tape player). These devices are
powered by dry-cell batteries, and usually at least four 1.5-volt cells are used
each month.
- Most rural households still do not own television sets, but
those who do usually have 1 2-volt black-and-white sets which are powered by car
batteries.
The demand structure can of course vary from region to region,
and sometimes from community to community as well. However, based on our
experience it can be assumed that in most developing countries the structure of
household electricity demand in rural areas will conform more or less to the
following pattern:
- One group, comprising some 20 % of the households,
would need electric power for lighting only. As a rule, these households have
very low incomes.
- A second group, accounting for the bulk (approx. 70 %) of
rural households, is the most varied. This "middle class" of rural energy
consumers is already using several lamps per household, at least in the upper
income brackets, and many households have radios and cassette players as well.
- A third group of consumers - making up roughly 10 % of all
rural households also owns a TV set and is usually willing to make relatively
large outlays to recharge and periodically replace the car battery that is used
to operate it.
It is difficult to place an upper limit on these groups'
expenditures for non-cooking energy - and thus on what they would be willing to
spend if this energy were supplied by an SHS - since highly subjective
considerations often determine how much of an individual household's income will
be used to operate lamps and home entertainment equipment. For instance, many
say that they would be willing to spend more for better light. However, on the
basis of past consumption patterns it is difficult to predict with any certainty
how many would actually decide to purchase a better product to meet their
lighting needs. Obviously, any figures that one might give here are bound to be
only very approximate estimates, but based on our own survey data and other
information on rural energy use in developing countries it can be assumed that
the monthly expenditures of rural households for lighting and entertainment
range between about 3 US$ (Group 1) and 18 US$ (Group 3) (see Table 1).
To sum up, the electric power needs of rural dwellers are as
follows (average values):
Table 1: Energy Use in Rural Households
|
a) Current non-cooking demand |
|
Group 1: |
(poorest segments of the population) |
|
|
- Lighting (kerosene, candles) |
4 hours/day |
|
Group 2: |
(middle-income groups) |
|
|
- Lighting (kerosene, candles) |
6 hours/day |
|
- Radios (dry-cell batteries) |
6 hours/day |
|
- Cassette players |
6 hours/day |
|
Group 3: |
(high-income groups) |
|
-Lighting (kerosene pressure lamp) |
8 hours/day |
|
-Radios and cassette players |
|
(dry-cell batteries) |
3 - 5 hours/day |
|
- Televislon sets (car batteries) |
4 hours/day |
|
b) Current non-cooking energy consumption and costs
incurred |
|
Group 1 |
Group 2 |
Group 3 |
|
Percentage of rural population |
20% |
70% |
10% |
|
Daily non-cooking energy consumption |
0.1 kWh |
0.2 kWh |
0.5-0.7 kWh |
|
Current monthly expenditures for nor-cooking energy |
3-4 US$ |
7-9 US$ |
12-18 US$ |
|
c) Possible monthly payments for an SHS that would meet the
households' current non-cooking energy demand (assumed interest rate: 7 %)
|
|
Group 1 |
Group 2 |
Group 3 |
|
Size Of panel |
20 Wp |
50 Wp |
100 Wp |
|
Based on present costs |
7.00 US$ |
11.00 US$ |
19.50 US$ |
|
Based on possible future costs |
6.60 US$ |
8.60 US$ |
16.00 US$ |
